Navigating the climate crisis with local insights: Luc Bas, Cerac

Climate change poses unprecedented challenges. Understanding and addressing climate risks is essential for the resilience of our societies and economies. Sweco talks about the challenges and solutions with Luc Bas, director of Cerac. This Climate Risk Assessment Center is dedicated to the analysis of climate and environment risks in the middle and long term, with a focus on Belgium’s national security and resilience. Cerac was created in response to the devastating floods of July 2021.

In this conversation, Luc Bas sheds light on the critical sectors most vulnerable to climate risks. He discusses the implications of these risks for insurance and real estate, emphasizing the importance of proactive policies and adaptation strategies. Moreover, Mr. Bas highlights the unique challenges posed by Belgium’s diverse regional approaches to climate risk assessment and the need for a coordinated national strategy.

This year, Cerac is conducting the First Risk Assessment, a thorough analysis of the risks linked to climate change and biodiversity loss for Belgium. This analysis focuses on five systems: the food system, health & human, infrastructure, economy and finance, and ecosystems.  The outcomes will result in recommendations for the National Security Council.

Sweco is eagerly looking forward to these outcomes and recommendations, to be able to implement them in the various sustainable projects we design, and to better consult policymakers  in the development of their climate resilience strategies.

What might be the effect of climate risk policies on insurance costs and real estate projects?

It is indeed the non-life insurance context that poses a recognizable risk, and it is captured by the insurance sector in Belgium. Assuralia is doing a lot of work on this and as I understand it, their analysis will inform them which policy is needed, and how to implement this policy. Hopefully, they will also suggest to the government how to regulate future insurance with increasing risks from climate impact. So, it’s important that there is a demand from the insurance sector and at the same time a willingness of the public authorities to adapt to a new situation.

Coming back to your earlier question, it is one of the sectors where there is a clear financial risk. At the same time, if the sector is withdrawing from insuring, the risk then goes to public finance, because that’s where the damage then will have to be paid. This is one of the items our center is now working on with the Federal Planning Bureau: estimating the cost of no adaptation or not enough adaptation, very specifically to public finance. So, if public finance does not invest into adaptation, what will be the consequences?

We notice their tools for Flanders and Wallonia differ, but climate risks are interlinked. How is this addressed through Cerac?

Well, you point at a very important challenge for Cerac. In an institutional interesting landscape such as Belgium, language borders do not stop climate risks and neither do national borders.

In that context, we want to find ways to help harmonize a common approach to climate risk assessment and from there to the solutions that go with it. Additionally, we want to do this in respect to the competencies. The plans in Wallonia and Flanders develop in a different way. We see this in a positive light: both approaches hold very interesting and very positive elements. The Flemish approach is very technical and very specific, for example on heat stress, but particularly on flooding, with very good maps.

On the Walloon side, these maps also exist, be it not as well developed. They are looking at things more systemically, at how risks are related to each other. And that is missing in Flanders. So, these are interesting complementary qualities, that we hope to bring together.

What the Flemish and Walloon levels will not do, is to advise the National Security Council, something we will do.  So, we will have to translate their findings when it comes to looking at how these risks are impacting our national security. And we will need their information to do so.

In an institutional interesting landscape such as Belgium, language borders do not stop climate risks and neither do national borders. In that context, we want to find ways to help harmonize a common approach to climate risk assessment and from there to the solutions that go with it.

Luc Bas, director Cerac

Will Belgium be working on climate risks policies soon?

Well, with the establishment  of Cerac, one of the more formal climate risk policies has been implemented. Specifically, we are put in place, with an independent mandate, to actually assess climate risks at the national level. We hope, when we identify the risks, their priority and urgency, that solutions will follow on the regulatory front and in the policy field. Very often, these are basically adaptation plans and adaptation policies. Here also, competencies are distributed between many levels: from the local level all the way up to the national levels, including regions and provinces. We need to make sure that actions are executed and supported at the right level and bring those different actions together.

There is also the effort on the national adaptation plan, which has been challenging to discuss between all the appropriate authorities in Belgium. But again, with our national risk assessment center, we as a motivator hope to advance a national adaptation plan. We also hope that the National Security Council will weigh on the decision making, and advance away from what is often marginal funding for adaptation actions.

Thank you again for your insights and recommendations that can guide Belgium towards a more sustainable and secure future.